It should be obvious by now that nobody really knows for sure how much oil is leaking into the Gulf. What we do know is the following:
BP says is has recovered or flared approximately 365,500 barrels of oil via the containment systems on the blown-out well head. It also claims to have recovered 610,000 barrels of an oil/seawater mix from the surface of the Gulf, which probably amounts to about 200,000 barrels or less of oil. In addition, it has eliminated 239,000 barrels in controlled burning. That's a total of 804, 500 barrels of oil.
If the well head has been leaking 35,000 barrels per day, the total amount of the spill to date is about 2,360,000 barrels.
If the well head has been leaking 45,000 barrels per day, the total amount of the spill to date is about 3,035,000 barrels.
If the well head has been leaking 60,000 barrels per day, the total amount of the spill to date is about 4,046,000 barrels.
And if the well head has been leaking 100,000 barrels per day, the total amount of the spill is about 6,700,000 barrels -- or 281,480,000 gallons, more than twice that of he Ixtoc I spill.
There are 42 gallons in a barrel.
I don't think it's 100,000 barrels per day. I think it's more like 45,000 to 60,000 barrels per day, an estimate based on the maximum success we can expect from the current recovery/remediation effort.
~seabgb
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